MINNEAPOLIS -- Abdul Mohammed sits in his white van and frets.
In front of him in a parking lot near Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport are 300 other taxis, each of whose drivers will wait for hours to make the 1.5-mile trip to the terminal to pick up a passenger.
Mohammed has been driving an airport taxi since 1989, but he's not sure how long he can hang on. The day before, he worked for 12 hours and made just two trips. After gas and his daily lease payment, the $80 in fares he collected shrunk to just $25.
"Our American dream has been cut short," said Mohammed, an Ethiopian immigrant who lives in a Minneapolis suburb. "Our business is saturated. There are too many drivers. You can't even raise a family."
Business has gotten tougher for Mohammed and hundreds of other cabdrivers in the Twin Cities for a simple reason: Uber and Lyft. The ride-hailing services have transformed the transportation business since their arrival in 2013, and cabdrivers have lost out.
Now, some of them are improving their games to better compete: embracing technology, spiffing up their vehicles and improving customer service. But the ride-hailing companies are still usually cheaper and often more convenient.
Nowhere is the challenge more obvious than at the airport, where Uber and Lyft have been allowed to pick up passengers since April. Cabdrivers, who now wait as long as six hours for a customer, are horrified by the change.
"I think in the next year or so we may be out of business," said Jamal Adem, owner of Airport Express Super Taxi, the second-biggest operator at the airport. "Most of the drivers are looking for another job. This is serious."
Uber says it now provides more than 100,000 trips per week in the Twin Cities, which far surpasses any cab company. Lyft, the No. 2 ride-sharing company, declined to provide local data.
Altogether, the two biggest cab companies -- which control 65 percent of the cabs in the Twin Cities -- are providing about 50,000 trips per week.
Uber and Lyft officials said they are not trying to eliminate traditional taxicabs. "We see ourselves as a supplement to other transit options, not a replacement," Lyft said in a written response to questions.
The question is whether the cab industry can innovate and compete in this new marketplace. While more people are paying for rides than in the past, the number of for-hire vehicles on the road is growing at an even faster rate.
That's leaving less business for the taxis. By 2020, Uber, Lyft and other so-called transportation network companies are expected to control 67 percent of the for-hire vehicle market in the United States, up from 15 percent in 2014, according to a report by the Aite Group, a research and advisory firm in Boston.
"There could be a scenario where the taxi industry collapses even though there is a lot of demand," said Gwenn Bezard, Aite's research director. "The problem is, nobody is making money anymore."
The threat that taxi operators face is apparent on the second floor of the airport parking garage, the designated pickup spot for Uber and Lyft.
On a recent Monday afternoon, business was booming. A trio of skiers returned from the slopes of Colorado. Two young parents carried an infant in a car seat. All the time, passengers looked at the Uber or Lyft apps on their phones to monitor their drivers' progress.
Though some wait as long as 10 minutes, the passengers don't complain. Most say Uber and Lyft cost half as much as traditional taxicabs.
"And they drive nice, comfy cars," said Shannon Farrell, 36, an area resident who typically uses Lyft once a week. "It's a more pleasant ride."
Still, the growing number of cars on the road also weighs down what Uber and Lyft drivers can earn.
When Uber arrived in the Twin Cities, the company told drivers they could make as much as $1,150 per week. But few achieve that kind of success, even drivers who log more than 50 hours per week in their cars. In a Star Tribune survey of more than 70 drivers, the typical full-time driver reported earning about $725 per week.
Out of that, drivers must pay all of their expenses plus give about a quarter of their income to Uber and Lyft as commissions for being part of the system.
Some drivers have quit because they weren't making enough money.
"Uber is good for the guy who owns Uber, and good for the riders, but it is not good for drivers," said Lencho Kemer, who spent three years driving for Uber before quitting for another transportation job last year.
An Uber spokesman said the company has taken steps in the Twin Cities to boost earnings and improve relations with its drivers.
Part of Uber's and Lyft's success is that they are expanding the market.
Most of those flocking to Uber and Lyft are people who rarely if ever used taxis in the past, according to recent transportation studies and a Star Tribune analysis of airport data.
"What Uber and Lyft have done a really good job of is creating additional customers that didn't exist before, because they have this new, innovative way of getting a ride," said Steve Pint, president of Transportation Plus, the parent company of Yellow Cab and several other taxi businesses in the Twin Cities.
The airport itself has not done any market research on Uber and Lyft riders, but travelers told the Star Tribune that in the past they either drove themselves, used public transit, or took rides from friends and family. A few used taxis.
Uber and Lyft customers cite a variety of factors -- including the friendliness of drivers and the cleanliness of cars -- for using the new services. But the main reason is cost. Uber and Lyft offer trips for $1 per mile, which is far below the standard rate of $2.50 per mile charged by local cab companies.
"People have had terrible experiences with cabs," said Grant Horntvedt, 27, who recently saved $30 by taking an Uber ride to his suburban home from the airport. "Once you see the difference, I don't see anybody going back to taxis."
SundayMonday Business on 03/13/2017