ST. LOUIS -- Baseball is really big business. Finally realizing this, more and more owners are relying on business-trained executives to guide their baseball operations.
One result of this shift: Owners are giving out fewer stupid contracts to fading ballplayers.
While you don't need an MBA to know that paying players in their 30s for what they did back in their 20s is dumb, such training helps executives gather information that makes their owners smarter.
Rather than simply tell the owner "don't pay this guy, he's getting old," executives can use statistical models to chart industry-wide and position-specific regression rates. They can build an elaborate statistical case for simply saying "no" to a particular individual.
This is good news for fans who enjoy seeing younger and more energetic players freshen up the product.
This is bad news for aging players like outfielder Jayson Werth, who didn't generate much interest from MLB teams after his seven-year, $126 million contract with the Washington Nationals expired after last season.
He played at the Class AAA level for Seattle earlier this season, but a hamstring pull ended his quest to reach the Mariners. He retired in June.
"They've got all these super nerds in the front office that know nothing about baseball but they like to project numbers and project players ... I think it's killing the game," Werth complained on The Howard Eskin Podcast.
"When they come down, these kids from MIT, Stanford, Harvard, wherever they're from, they've never played baseball in their life. ... We're creating something that's not fun to watch. It's boring. You're turning players into robots."
And ...
"It's to the point where, just put computers out there. Just put laptops and what have you, just put them out there and let them play. We don't even need to go out there anymore. It's a joke."
Sorry, Jayson, but there is no funny business.
Cardinals executive John Mozeliak might be a "super nerd," but he has enjoyed more consistent success than his old-school predecessor Walt Jocketty did in St. Louis.
Astros executive Jeff Luhnow is definitely a "super nerd," but he revitalized the Cardinals farm system before building a World Series champion in Houston.
The Chicago Cubs are run by "super nerds" now. So are the Los Angeles Dodgers. Those teams could play for the National League pennant this season.
We'll concede that heavy use of analytics can diminish instinctive managing and playing. There's something to be said for going with your gut or playing a hunch in Our National Pastime.
But team owners, executives, managers, coaches and players can never have too much good information. If that information tells owners to quit paying guys well into their 30s, then so be it.
In Werth's case, his on-paper production didn't come close to matching his pay. He hit 20 or more home runs three times during his time with the Nationals and twice drove in 80 runs, but he also hit .244 or worse four times.
Werth, 39, was an excellent defensive player. He also offered intangible benefits to the Nationals through his ability to attract other good players to D.C. -- when nobody wanted to play there -- and lead in the clubhouse.
It's true that a computer can't calculate some of what Werth brought to the Nationals.
But he still earned way more than he was, well, worth. Perhaps in today's analytics-driven world he would have gotten that $126 million contract in the first place.
Is that so bad? While elite players deserve to make movie-star dollars in this prosperous industry, there's no excuse for lavishing riches on middling talent.
Owners pass the cost of bad contracts onto the fans by raising prices. They keep bad players on the team rather than paying them to go away and they make other cuts that diminish their product.
Sorry, Jayson, but we need to embrace the "super nerds," not scorn them. If anything we need more calculators, not fewer.
Sports on 08/12/2018