TOKYO -- Satellite images suggest North Korea was preparing to launch a space rocket even before the breakdown of the Hanoi summit between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, experts say.
There is no way of knowing if Pyongyang will follow through with the plans, which would likely be seen very negatively in Washington and could derail an already shaky negotiation process. Meanwhile, signs of a hardening of attitudes within the Trump administration have left several experts increasingly pessimistic.
The plans may reflect a feeling that talks had already hit an impasse even before the summit, as well as North Korea's frustration with a lack of sanctions relief, experts say. Kim had already warned in a New Year's Day speech that he might be forced to follow a "new path" if the United States demanded unilateral concessions and failed to lift sanctions.
The images showed signs of activity on Feb. 22 at Second Academy of Natural Sciences at Sanumdong, just outside Pyongyang, which is North Korea's primary developer of ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles.
Other images made available this week show North Korea has also rebuilt a launchpad and rocket engine test site at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, reinforcing suspicions that a rocket launch could be imminent.
In 2012, an agreement between North Korea and President Barack Obama's administration to cease nuclear and missile tests in return for food aid broke down after Pyongyang launched a satellite rocket. Trump has set considerable store in a promise by Kim to suspend testing, and said on Friday he said he would be "very disappointed" if testing resumed.
"With the inconclusive result in Hanoi, North Korea now appears to be moving again toward a space launch," wrote Jeffrey Lewis, a scholar at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, in California, on a blog post.
Lewis said he expected North Korea would use older, tried and tested technology for a space launch, but he said there was a possibility it could use a larger rocket that would send a more provocative signal.
"If North Korea wants to place a satellite in geostationary orbit, however, it will require a larger launch vehicle," he wrote. "North Korea might instead debut a new rocket, possibly using a variant of the March 18 Revolution engine that powers its new generation of strategic missiles including the Hwasong-15."
Lewis said the move followed a pattern of North Korean negotiating tactics: "Pressure before the summit to make deal, followed by a credible punishment after the U.S. walks away."
"Trump is going to lose his one foreign policy victory bit by bit," Lewis added.
Attitudes also appear to be hardening in Washington. On Thursday, a senior State Department official said the launch of a space launch vehicle from Sohae "would be inconsistent with the commitments that the North Koreans have made."
But more significant to many experts was a comment that appears to put the ball squarely in Pyongyang's court to dismantle its nuclear weapons before the United States would consider easing the pressure.
"So nobody in the administration advocates a step-by-step approach," the official, who could not be named under State Department guidelines, said. "In all cases, the expectation is a complete denuclearization of North Korea as a condition for all the other steps being -- all the other steps being taken."
Experts said the latest remarks appear to contradict a speech made by Stephen Biegun, the U.S. envoy to North Korea, at Stanford in January, when he said he hoped the two sides could move "simultaneously and in parallel," through a road map of "concrete deliverables," negotiations and declarations.
Instead, the official's latest comments suggest the Trump administration is losing interest in a gradualist approach built around confidence-building and reciprocal steps. Instead, it seems to be banking on Trump's offer that Kim go "all in," and completely surrender its nuclear and missile arsenal in one go, in return for economic rewards and "a brighter future." Among the North Korea-watching community, such a prospect is seen as unrealistic.
"I can certainly affirm what the president proposed to Chairman Kim, which was the complete elimination of their weapons of mass destruction program," the official said. "We still believe this is all achievable within the president's first term, and that's the timetable we're working on."
Information for this report was contributed by Min Joo Kim of The Washington Post.
A Section on 03/10/2019